Part 1.What it Means to be a Proxy in 21st century lying next door to a Great Power?
Digging into 21st century Geopolitics and Proxy Warfare! We do not care about the herd; our problem is the shepherd of that herd!
Is it just about being a strategic ally or a closer bilateral relation of the 20th century?
We do not care about the herd; our problem is the shepherd of that herd!
They say,
Drums Sound Nice from Away
But you should hear it closer!
Playing into the hands of a great power may sound good and important but at a closer look it is hellfire!
To begin with, it is unlike the anarchic, lawless, order less, chaotic proxy war of Greater Middle East and its periphery. The mechanics of manufactured chaos designed in the first decade of 21st century is different from the dynamics of the proxy warfare,which was later to be fought, in a European country (Ukraine), living next to a great power Russia.
Geopolitics is thundering with little conscience and with each passing day it is gearing up to get the desired outcomes.
Today, China and Russia are seen as threats to the “old ruled-based order” and hence must be taken care of, one by one with a blend of some old and some new tactics or individual steps that can eventually win the strategic aim of weakening and bleeding the two-
US had taken this phrase to its heart: for one empire to rise the other must fall!
Countries that share borders with Russia and China would go through “same dynamics of proxy warfare”, as illustrated in Ukraine-which by far has proved to be a successful one. Neighboring countries of the two great powers, Russia and China, if unguarded, would turn into a witch’s cauldron. It is because both Russia and China face an existential threat by the declining unipolar hegemon, the US, that still is a great power.
The Master stroke or the Disguise?
21st century Proxy Warfare Neither Meant having a Political or Economic Protectorate or a Puppet Regime Only; In Essence, Ukraine had to be a NATO war contractor against Russia!
While the strategic outcome is understood by most political scientist, this paper will look into the 21st century “proxy war” maneuvers and tactics used by the great power when it’s not fought far away, but instead, for once, right at the borders of the other rising great power-
The cold war era was about subnational and proxy conflicts, perhaps more about ideology than resources – today when the war is being brought right at the borders of the other peer competitor, it becomes a direct conflict – this has the propensity to shift the tactical planning of low-end operations to a more nuanced conventional conflict of 21st century.
Scholars have debated over decades, whether direct conflict between the two great powers is inevitable; Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison is instrumental in understanding it. Most believe that a more likely outcome is US playing old establishment playbook, and will therefore engage in proxy wars. However, this time, the “failures” of previously fought proxy wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam, were to a great extent contained-where resistance and revolt of local population could not be controlled and managed by US led NATO presence-
21st century brings forth new dynamics of proxy warfare where two great powers stand eye to eye at the borders of the other rising great power. This consequently makes it an existential threat to at least one power and lose of unipolar hegemony to the other power. That is why, to be a proxy state in these “mad affairs” will only mean “death” and “destruction”, as the conflict is only going to get more ferocious and intense as time will pass.
This round of great power politics has pushed matters to the point where negotiated peace settlement on either side would be taken as a defeat.
Russian President Putin calls western tactical strategy as “‘Divide and rule’ - they have always tried to do this, they are trying to do it now. But our goal is something else. It is to unite the Russian people,” he said.
How it started with Russia?
Moving close to Russian borders and claiming Russians unnecessarily getting close to NATO!
John Kirby served as the Pentagon Press Secretary under Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel tries explaining Washington led NATO expansion towards Russian borders as benign and an act of absolute peace and security for Russia and the region. The urgency of moving NATO into Ukraine while Ukraine is not a member of NATO-and all the same appealing to the world to see NATO as a military eunuch even though Russians see NATO troops at their borders as an existential threat.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs,
“NATO should not enlarge towards Georgia and Ukraine because it is Security Red line for Russia”
Today its Russia’s borders!
Tomorrow, its China; a Pacing threat, a Competitor! A rising and belligerent China-
Process of death and erosion started much earlier; the process that started much earlier has entered its final stages!
Marine Gen. James Bierman says the US began preparing Ukraine for an eventual war with Russia back in 2014, and that the Ukraine proxy war is "setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines" for another eventual war with China over the Taiwan Strait.
Vladimir Putin Press Conference on December 22 2022, provides an insight into the many layered carefully crafted processes of 21st century proxy warfare when it’s played right at the borders of other great power.
Some of the prominent takeaways:
RGO is in fact War, it’s not an ordinary change of command instead the beginning a vicious warfare within the state machinery.
“What was it when the centers of million strong cities were struck from the air?
What was it when troops with armor were deployed against citizens?
It was a war, combat operations.
We endured all this, endured and endured, in the hope of some peace agreement. Now it turns out that we were simply fooled.”
A war was unleashed in 2014; but a great power like Russia even could not comprehend the “newly crafted proxy warfare” at the time. Now, this begs the question as to what becomes of the “proxies to be”, in South Asian region or what possible successes they could possibly have against the many-layered, complicated, mind-boggling Proxy warfare- that hoodwinked not only Ukrainian Politicians and officials but Russia too?
to be continued…..