US foreign policy goals in Pakistan be like: Out of the frying pan into the fire
Neither the people in Vietnam disappointed Americans nor the Afghans, and considering the resilience of 220 million people, same can be perceived from the ‘People’ of Pakistan.
For a great power to get a humiliating defeat from the people (Afghans) of Afghanistan, seems not enough that they have now decided to use tools from their ‘oldest cauldron of created chaos’ in another South Asian State of 220 million people (Pakistanis) which were used earlier in Iraq and other Middle eastern countries and expecting the same results.
Neither the people in Vietnam disappointed Americans nor the Afghans, and considering the resilience of 220 million people, same can be perceived from the ‘People’ of Pakistan.
Is Pakistan heading towards The Black Swan? But then, who is the ‘thanksgiving turkey’?
The famous example of black swan given by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book is the Thanksgiving Turkey.
He writes:
"Consider a turkey that is fed every day,"Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,”
‘Someone’ here in Pakistan is made to think that everything is happening in ‘his or their’ interests and US would, for once, fulfil its promise to ‘him or them’. But to their dismay, US has never kept its words/ promise with any country or leader of the world. The US historical Archives explains its dealings with Allies or non-allies :
From ‘Mujahedin to Terrorists’,
No Eastward NATO expansion (promised to Gorbachev) to war over Ukraine must become NATO member ,
Saddam Hussein chosen and used as a bulwark to anti-communism for decades to getting hanged and shown on national television ,
Pakistan role as an ally in war on terror to becoming ‘most dangerous country in the world and many other examples.
This is because US foreign policy is based on Machiavelli principles and is unlike the Confucius teachings of virtue and values-based system.
"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief. Consider that [the turkey's] feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!"
When they are not friendlier any more, it came as a Black Swan. From the turkey point of view, it was totally unexpected.
It is only a black swan if you are not informed. For turkey, him making it to the thanksgiving table of some hungry human family was totally unexpected. But the family had known the exact date of the event for months.
Which is to say, that only the masters know about the ‘exact plan’ for the turkey, and until then the ‘turkey’ must be kept in the delusion of a ‘prize’ and assurance of some sort. And hence all the events unfolded yet are unexpected for the ‘turkey’ but perfect for the US national interests. Therefore , the US while planning the RGO were cognizant of the political and military boundaries within which Pakistan work. So, while the masters promise a ‘prize’, they very strategically ‘kept on hacking’ the very sensitive nerves of Pakistan with a scalpel.
So far, every ‘nerve center’ of both Pakistan and Pakistan Army is attacked most incessantly, like:
The hounding of Pro Pakistan & Pro Army Journalists,
The retribution of ex-servicemen
Persecution of Pro Pakistan and pro army media houses
Assassination of Pro Pakistan and Pro army Journalist
Flogging of Pro Pakistan and Pro army journalist
Hounding of youth through Intelligence agencies
Firing rubber shots and tear gas shells at innocent girls/women and elderly,
Target assassinations of Pro army and nationalist leaders!
Undoubtedly what the people of Pakistan are witnessing, is cruelty, and it is because the ‘turkey’ is lured into believing a false prize– our enemies will bite us the moment they see us weak- now the patience and persistence by PTI leadership under all the fascism is clearly for the interest of Pakistan i.e. Don’t burn your home to scare the mouse! But it is a hard sell these days given the Neo fascist tactics being implied on the people. The ‘turkey’ seems bent upon heading for a ‘black swan’, and is unable to calculate the catastrophe waiting ahead for itself. From this day onwards, no amount of cautioning and restrain by Imran Khan could change the Black Swan to happen. It is solely in the hands of the ‘turkey’ ; as Everything starts with geography and geopolitics but ends with Shakespeare.
After the 2014 coup in Ukraine, the country went through similar transformation of torture and fascist tactics as seen in Pakistan today; the US took control of all institutes from military to judiciary and the country turned not into a political or economic protectorate but reduced to a colony with puppet regime.
Imran Khan Assassination Attempt and the Upcoming Black Swan:
Imran khan, and at least 14 other people sustained injuries as a result of a failed assassination attempt. The statements of eyewitnesses and open-source intelligence claims of multiple shots being fired at the Azadi container. Khan, who himself was hit by 4 bullets on his legs and thigh had demanded police investigation against three persons.
It was largely expected to hear a very emotional and charged speech from the hospital after Imran Khan had narrowly escaped an assassination attempt to his life, and being hit by four bullets to his legs. He was composed and remained focused towards his goal, when he could have stoked fire with a fiery speech that could have made it impossible for the government to function. Instead, he demanded a fair inquiry by army leadership into their rank and profile, by themselves. And also, a simple police investigation against the other two suspects that he alleged are behind the conspiracy of his assassination.
He pleaded the highest military echelons to safeguard Pakistan interests above anything and asked for nothing but free and fair elections and a promise of continuation of his struggle towards that goal.
The upcoming Black Swan
If you do not crush the snake growing beside you, you will be the first one it bites. Unfortunately, no one recognizes the snake for what it is, until it poisons you:
After the visuals of people heading towards army cantonments; it only becomes essential to keep hacking and inciting people on daily basis until the ‘desired outcome’ can be actualized. Therefore, though the present, everyday happenings ( be it Senator Azam Swati or else ) seem mind boggling and complete madness of affairs but in reality, ‘there is method to this madness’.
The people of Pakistan must be in constant state of pain and retaliation, there should be no reconciliation, or even conciliatory efforts for that part. There has to be torture or more targeted assassinations! Hence , it can transcend into a perfect ‘black swan’.
The effects of targeted killings go beyond the pulling of a trigger; it creates an atmosphere of fear and intimidation that wraps the fabric of society, it will jeopardize a country’s security, politics, judiciary, economy.
The policy of intimidation, terror, violence is taking increasingly massive, horrific, barbaric formats under the heel of US orchestrated RGO and present political mafia.
The Silver Lining
After all, The US-orchestrated but domestically driven post-modern coup that ousted its multipolar Prime Minister in early April had a silver lining : A New civilian leadership is rising in crisis for once in Pakistan. Which until now has been the task of men in uniform. This time around instead of men in uniform, the people of Pakistan have at last found the civilian leadership, a multipolar leader with strategic vision; one who has taken four bullets with his injured bodyguards and one shaheed and yet he pleads for reasoning, he pleads to run investigation, and explains the strategic consequences of repeating the mistake made in 1971.
What could be more genuine, selfless and remarkable?
Imran Khan persistence and unfailing faith is his weapon
Imran khan spirits have been ironclad throughout, from harassing his first wife to divorce, questioning his religion, calling him ‘yahoodi’ agent, arresting & beating him up in Punjab university, injuring him in 2014 , filing cases of terrorism , and now trying to assassinate him and he kept on saying, ‘will they actually do that to me’, ‘will my people actually try to assassinate me’ !
(49:00) Why do the FIA, Punjab and Islamabad Police, Election commissioner covey to Imran Khan (and through him to the people of Pakistan) that whatever has been done to you is being done by ‘the boot’. What is the purpose of this confession by all these highest offices and officers?
Why has the nation been pushed to believe by ‘these people’ that armed forces of Pakistan have fascist policies towards the people of Pakistan?
Can ‘Black Swan’ be avoided?
The important thing is not to be perfect. The important thing is learning from your mistakes. “A good scare is worth more than a good advice”. Sometimes you had to have a scare to see your mistakes.